Setups, Stops & Surprises: Lessons from Five Recent Alerts
In the spirit of transparency, we’re providing a complete update on our recent stock alerts. Some setups played out as expected, others are still developing, and one proved to be an important learning experience. Here’s where each stands today.
AMZN (Amazon) — Bullish Alert: October 22, 2025
Alert Price: $222 | Current Price: ~$227 | Return: +2.3% Peak Since Alert: $254 (November 3) | Peak Return: +14.4%
Status: ✅ THESIS PLAYED OUT—NOW IN CONSOLIDATION
Our bullish reversal thesis on Amazon executed almost exactly as outlined. We identified the stock bouncing off its 200-day moving average support near $214, called for a breakout above $225, and set targets of $235-$245+. The stock delivered—and then some.
The Original Setup (October 22):
- Entry zone: $220-$224
- Breakout confirmation level: $225
- Initial target: $235 (5.9% upside)
- Extended target: $245-$250 (10-13% upside)
- Stop loss: Below $215
- Key catalyst: Q3 earnings on October 30
What Happened: The earnings catalyst delivered exactly as anticipated. On October 30, Amazon reported Q3 results that beat on both top and bottom lines:
- EPS: $1.95 vs $1.57 expected (24% beat)
- Revenue: $180.17B vs $177.80B expected
- AWS revenue: $33B (up 20% YoY)
- Advertising revenue: $17.7B
The stock broke through our $225 resistance level, blew past our $235 initial target, exceeded our $245-$250 extended target, and hit an all-time high of $254 on November 3—the first new high since February 2025.
Current Situation: The stock has since pulled back to ~$227, consolidating gains amid broader market rotation and AI spending concerns. This pullback represents profit-taking rather than fundamental deterioration.
Scorecard vs. Our Targets:
| Level | Target | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout | $225 | ✅ Cleared | Hit |
| Initial Target | $235 | ✅ $254 high | Exceeded |
| Extended Target | $245-250 | ✅ $254 high | Exceeded |
| Stop Loss | $215 | Never tested | Protected |
Does the thesis still hold? Yes, for longer-term holders. The fundamental drivers we identified—AWS acceleration, advertising growth, e-commerce efficiency gains, and holiday season strength—remain intact. Wall Street consensus remains “Strong Buy” with a median price target of $267.95. The current consolidation around $227 may present another entry opportunity for those who missed the initial move, though the easy money from the October setup has been captured.
VMEO (Vimeo) — Bearish Alert: October 24, 2025
Alert Price: $7.77 | Acquisition Close Price: $7.85 | Max Upside (if held): +1%
Status: ✅ THESIS VALIDATED
This was a merger arbitrage play, and the math worked exactly as we outlined. With Vimeo trading at $7.77 against a $7.85 acquisition price, we identified one of the worst risk/reward setups in small-cap tech: 1% upside versus 50%+ downside if the deal broke.
Our October 24 thesis:
- Upside capped at $0.08/share (1%) to acquisition ceiling
- Downside risk of 50%+ if the Bending Spoons deal fell through
- Analyst consensus target of $7.03 was below the trading price
- No-growth fundamentals (0.3% YoY revenue growth)
- 26% workforce reduction over three years signaling distress
- Management cancelled Q3 earnings call—a red flag
What happened:
- The acquisition closed in late November 2025 at $7.85
- Vimeo is now a private company, delisted from Nasdaq
- Anyone who bought at $7.77 captured a grand total of $0.08/share (1%)
- Anyone who followed our sell signal locked in gains from the 60% rally and avoided illiquidity
The lesson: When a stock is trading within 1% of its acquisition ceiling, the risk/reward is asymmetric in the wrong direction. Our call to exit wasn’t about predicting deal failure—it was about recognizing that the easy money had been made. Whether you were a long holder taking profits or a trader avoiding dead money, stepping aside was the right move.
DKNG (DraftKings) — Bullish Alert: October 29, 2025
Alert Price: $31.32 | Post-Earnings Low: $25.37 | Current Price: ~$35.50 | Return from Alert: +13.4%
Status: ⚠️ THE ROLLERCOASTER—A CASE STUDY IN VOLATILITY
This one requires the full story, because it’s been a wild ride that tested our thesis, triggered our stop loss, and then ultimately vindicated the longer-term setup.
The Original Setup (October 29): We identified DKNG at $31.32 as a potential bullish reversal—trading near 52-week lows with 29/30 analyst Buy ratings, Cathie Wood accumulating aggressively, and Q3 earnings as an imminent catalyst.
What Happened Next—The Setup Broke Down: On November 6, Q3 earnings came in mixed-to-ugly:
- Revenue: $1.14B (missed estimates of $1.22B by 5.6%)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$126.5M (missed by 84%—losses nearly doubled vs expectations)
- Full-year guidance slashed from $6.2-6.4B to $5.9-6.1B
- Monthly unique payers flat YoY at 3.6 million
The stock cratered to $25.37 in after-hours trading—a 19% decline from our alert price. We published a detailed post-mortem on November 6 acknowledging the setup had failed and emphasizing that our recommended $28.50 stop loss would have limited losses to ~9%.
The Twist—Recovery From the Ashes: Here’s where it gets interesting. Since that November 6 capitulation low of $25.37, DKNG has rallied approximately 40% to current levels around $35.50.
What drove the recovery:
- ESPN partnership announcement (November 6)—DraftKings became the official sportsbook for ESPN
- $2 billion share repurchase authorization doubled from $1B
- October sportsbook handle up 17% YoY
- Missouri mobile sports wagering launched December 1
- CEO stated he’s “most bullish I have ever felt about our future”
- Multiple analyst price target raises (BTIG raised to $45 from $42)
The Honest Assessment: Anyone who followed our original alert and held through the earnings volatility is now sitting on +13% gains. Anyone who followed the $28.50 stop loss we recommended took a ~9% loss and missed the subsequent 40% rally from the lows.
This is the inherent tension in trading volatile, catalyst-driven setups. The stop loss did exactly what it was supposed to do—limit downside risk during a severe breakdown. But markets don’t move in straight lines, and the post-earnings capitulation ultimately marked the bottom.
Key Lessons:
- Volatility around binary events (earnings) can be extreme
- Stop losses protect capital but can also take you out before recoveries
- The underlying thesis (prediction market fears overdone, strong market position) proved correct on a longer timeframe
- Position sizing matters—smaller positions allow for wider stops
Current Outlook: Analyst consensus remains bullish with average targets around $44-45, suggesting 25%+ additional upside. The ESPN partnership is a significant long-term catalyst for 2026.
META (Meta Platforms) — Bullish Alert: November 11, 2025
Alert Price: $622 | Current Price: ~$667 | Return: +7.2%
Status: ✅ REVERSAL CONFIRMED—T1 TARGET HIT
Our META analysis identified a textbook oversold reversal setup, and the stock has executed almost exactly as the technical framework suggested. From an RSI of 19.9 (extreme oversold) at the $620-625 support zone, META has rallied to reclaim our first resistance target.
The Original Setup (November 11): We identified META at $622 as a bullish reversal candidate based on:
- RSI at 19.9 (most oversold since early 2024)
- Price at historical support confluence ($620-625)
- Selloff driven by one-time tax charge, not operational failure
- Adjusted EPS actually beat by 7.6% ($7.25 vs $6.74 expected)
- 79% of analysts maintaining Strong Buy ratings
- Median price target of $843 (35% upside from entry)
Key Levels From Our Analysis:
| Level | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | $620-630 | ✅ Entered at $622 |
| Stop Loss | $600 | Never tested |
| T1 Resistance | $660-670 | ✅ HIT ($667 current) |
| T2 Resistance | $700-710 | Pending |
| T3 Resistance | $750 | Pending |
| T4 (Analyst Consensus) | $800-843 | Long-term target |
What’s Happened Since November 11: The reversal played out on schedule:
- Stock bounced from the $620 support zone
- Reclaimed the 20-day moving average
- Recent news of Reality Labs/metaverse spending cuts well-received by market
- Dividend of $0.525/share announced (ex-date December 15)
- Analyst consensus remains bullish with average targets of $820-830
Risk-Reward Achieved: From our $622 entry with a $600 stop (3.5% risk):
- T1 at $670: 2.3:1 risk-reward ✅ ACHIEVED
- T2 at $710: 5.7:1 risk-reward (in progress)
- T3 at $750: 10:1 risk-reward (pending)
Position Management Considerations: For those who entered at the alert price, the setup has delivered +7.2% in under a month. Options include:
- Take partial profits at T1 ($660-670) and trail stops on remainder
- Hold for T2 ($700-710) with stop raised to breakeven ($622)
- Full conviction hold targeting analyst consensus ($800+) with wider stops
Does the thesis still hold? Yes. The operational fundamentals that underpinned our analysis remain intact—26% revenue growth, 40% operating margins, 3.54B daily users. The one-time tax charge that spooked the market is now in the rearview mirror. Recent news about scaling back metaverse spending in favor of AI infrastructure has been received positively, addressing one of the bear case concerns we outlined.
What We’re Watching:
- Break above $700 would confirm T2 and open path to $750
- Q4 earnings (early February 2026) will show holiday advertising strength
- Continued evidence of AI monetization in advertising efficiency
NKE (Nike) — Bullish Alert: December 1, 2025
Alert Price: ~$64 | Current Price: ~$63.50 | Return: -0.8%
Status: ⏳ EARLY INNINGS—CATALYST APPROACHING
Our Nike analysis was positioned as a turnaround case study rather than a short-term trade—and that framing matters. With only 8 days since publication and the key earnings catalyst still ahead (December 18), this setup is squarely in the “developing” phase.
The Original Thesis: We identified Nike as a potential turnaround play with asymmetric risk/reward:
- 64% decline from 2021 highs created a beaten-down base
- Elliott Hill’s return as CEO (32-year company veteran) brought credibility
- 2026 FIFA World Cup represents a $1.3B+ incremental revenue catalyst
- Technical exhaustion with repeated oversold RSI readings
- Risk/reward ratio of 1.5:1 to 2:1 at current levels
Key Levels From Our Analysis:
| Level | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Support Zone | $52-55 | Holding |
| Current Trading | $63-66 | ✅ Within range |
| Near-term Resistance | $70 | Not yet tested |
| Breakout Level | $78-80 | Target |
| Analyst Consensus | $83.30 | +30% upside |
What’s Happened Since December 1:
- December 2: Major leadership restructuring announced—new COO role created, CTO position eliminated, technology integrated into operations
- Stock has traded in a tight $60-$66 range
- Dividend increased to $0.41/share quarterly
- Citi lowered price target to $70 (from $74) ahead of earnings
- December 18 Q2 FY2026 earnings remains the pivotal near-term catalyst
The Setup Remains Intact: The core thesis hasn’t changed. Nike is a turnaround story that will take quarters to play out, not days. The December 18 earnings report will provide the first significant data point on whether Hill’s “Win Now” strategy is gaining traction. Expectations are low (consensus EPS $0.37, down 53% YoY), which creates setup for potential positive surprise.
What We’re Watching on December 18:
- Gross margin trajectory (inventory clearance progress)
- North America wholesale trends (rebuilding partner relationships)
- China performance (17% decline last quarter—stabilization needed)
- Forward guidance tone (any improvement to cautious FY2026 outlook)
- World Cup marketing investment commentary
Risk Reminder: As we noted in the original analysis, turnarounds are inherently uncertain. The bear case (valuation assumes recovery that isn’t guaranteed, China headwinds, tariff exposure) remains valid. Position sizing should reflect the speculative nature of turnaround investing.
Longer-Term Catalyst: The 2026 FIFA World Cup (June 11 – July 19, 2026) remains the major catalyst on the horizon. Nike sponsors 6 of the top 10 FIFA-ranked teams including host nation USA. RBC estimates $1.3B in incremental revenue potential.
Summary Scorecard
| Stock | Direction | Alert Date | Alert Price | Current | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Bullish | Oct 22 | $222 | ~$227 | +2.3% (Peak: +14.4%) | ✅ Targets Hit |
| VMEO | Bearish | Oct 24 | $7.77 | $7.85 | +1% (capped) | ✅ Validated |
| DKNG | Bullish | Oct 29 | $31.32 | ~$35.50 | +13.4% | ⚠️ Volatile |
| META | Bullish | Nov 11 | $622 | ~$667 | +7.2% | ✅ T1 Hit |
| NKE | Bullish | Dec 1 | $64 | ~$63.50 | -0.8% | ⏳ Developing |
Overall: Four of our five alerts have delivered positive outcomes. AMZN hit all price targets before consolidating. VMEO correctly identified a capped-upside merger arb situation. META’s oversold reversal hit T1 resistance. DKNG weathered extreme volatility but ultimately recovered to solid gains. NKE remains in the early innings ahead of its December 18 catalyst.
What We’re Watching
- DKNG: December 18 Nike earnings same day—watch for sector rotation; continued handle growth and ESPN partnership integration
- META: Watching for break above $700 (T2 target); ex-dividend date December 15; Q4 earnings early February 2026
- NKE: December 18 Q2 FY2026 earnings—the real test of Hill’s turnaround; watching for gross margin improvement and wholesale recovery signals
- AMZN: Holiday quarter performance (Q4 results in late January) and AWS growth trajectory; watching for re-test of $254 highs
As always, these are analytical observations for educational purposes—not investment advice. Manage your risk accordingly.
— Direction Alerts Team
Disclaimer: Direction Alerts provides market analysis for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.