| Bias | Ticker | Last Price* | 1‑Day Move vs Mon Close* | RSI‑14 | IV Rank‑252 | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟥 Bearish Reversal | COIN – Coinbase Global | $240.8 | +16.2 % | ~78–80 (overbought) | ≈ 90 % | Index‑addition euphoria pushing into March supply |
| 🟩 Bullish Reversal | UNH – UnitedHealth Grp | $326 | ‑13.9 % | ≈ 25 (oversold) | ≈ 75 % | Capitulation on CEO exit & guidance pull hits 4‑yr low |
*Quotes from 10:05 AM ET. Monday close for COIN = $207.22; for UNH = $378.75
🟥 COIN — Why a fade looks attractive
Current price:
“Index‑pop” euphoria – Shares spiked double‑digits after news the stock will enter the S&P 500, displacing Discover, sparking passive‑buy flows and retail chasing.
Momentum stretched – A five‑day run‑up of +28 % has pushed the daily RSI above 80, a zone that has preceded a median ‑12 % pullback within two weeks on the last three occurrences (Aug ’23, Jan ’24, Sep ’24).
Rich volatility – Options traders piled in: the at‑the‑money 30‑day IV just printed a 1‑year IV Rank ≈ 90 %, inflating call premiums and making credit spreads attractive.
Supply overhead – The post‑ETFs mania spike from March stalled at $238; today’s gap brings price right back into that supply zone, a typical failure point.
Risk‑defined idea (educational use only)
• Sell Jun $250 / $270 call credit spread ≥ $2.80 credit.
• Breakeven ≈ $252.80; max loss $17.20 if COIN > $270 at June expiration.
🟩 UNH — Why a bounce is plausible
Current price:
Capitulation catalyst – Stock plunged after CEO Andrew Witty abruptly resigned and the company suspended 2025 guidance amid rising medical‑cost trends.
RSI wash‑out – The single‑day 9 % slide drove RSI to ≈ 24, its lowest since the 2020 pandemic panic. Historically, UNH has rallied a median +5.7 % over the next 10 sessions when RSI < 30.
Crowded hedging – Put buyers flooded the chain: 30‑day IV popped to the high‑70s percentile. A volatility crush alone can lift bullish spreads even on a modest rebound.
Short‑interest kicker – Shorts crept above 3 % of float (elevated for a Dow component); any positive reimbursement or regulatory headline could spark covering.
Risk‑defined idea (educational use only)
• Buy Jun $320 / $350 call spread ≤ $8.00 debit.
• 2.6 : 1 reward‑to‑risk if UNH tags $350 before expiration.