🟥 Bearish Reversal Candidate — SMCI │ Super Micro Computer
| Metric | Reading | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| 1‑Day Move | +12 % (pre‑market gap) | A pick‑up in AI‑server headlines plus a new $20 billion DataVolt deal sent the stock sharply higher. |
| RSI‑14 | 84 | Anything above 70 is considered overbought; 80‑plus sits in the 98th percentile of SMCI readings since 2021. |
| IV Rank (30‑day) | ≈ 88 % | Options premiums are more expensive than ~88 % of the past year—often a sign of frothy sentiment. |
| Chart Context | Pushing into the $245 ± $3 zone that capped the early‑March rally—an area where many prior longs were trapped. |
Narrative
Super Micro’s AI‑server story is back in vogue: a Saudi DataVolt order and bullish broker coverage have reignited “AI infrastructure” enthusiasm. Yet the stock is still down ~60 % from its 2024 peak, and repeated spikes into the mid‑$240s have failed to hold. With momentum stretched, elevated volatility, and known supply overhead, a cool‑off toward the 20‑day EMA (~$210) wouldn’t surprise.
Trade Idea (educational):
If you hold shares, think about scaling out of a portion or placing a tight stop just above $250 to protect gains. Short‑term traders eyeing a fade could target a move back into the low‑$220s, risking a quick exit if price closes above the March high (~$248).
Risk note: AI headlines can create fresh spikes; keep position size small and consider using a stop‑market order to cap losses.
🟩 Bullish Reversal Candidate — ED │ Consolidated Edison
| Metric | Reading | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| 3‑Day Slide | ‑8 % | Utilities have underperformed as money rotates into tech; ED has been one of the hardest hit names. |
| RSI‑14 | 29.9 | First dip below 30 since 2022—traditionally viewed as “oversold” and ripe for a bounce. |
| IV Rank (30‑day) | ≈ 72 % | Put premiums are fat; fear is priced in even as price nears long‑term support. |
| Chart Context | Testing the $100–102 support shelf (January lows). |
Narrative
ConEd is a slow‑and‑steady utility, rarely this volatile. A sector‑wide selloff plus dilution fears from a recent share issuance have pushed ED back to its year‑to‑date floor. Each visit to the low‑$100s over the past three years has produced a multi‑week recovery as dividend hunters step in. With sentiment washed out and options rich, odds favor at least a dead‑cat bounce toward the 50‑day MA (~$107).
Trade Idea (educational):
Value‑minded traders could start a half‑position near $101–102 and plan to add if price closes above $105, placing a stop under $99 to limit risk. Alternatively, sell one $100 put expiring next month—if ED stays above $100 you keep the premium; if it dips briefly you’re willing to own shares at an attractive yield.
Risk note: Rising bond yields can pressure defensive utilities; size positions so a deeper drawdown to the October 2023 lows (~$96) won’t derail your portfolio.