| Bias | Ticker | Last Trade* | 1-Day Move | RSI-14 | IV Rank-252 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟥 Bearish | DJT – Trump Media & Technology Grp. | $29.10 | +12 % | 84 | ≈ 94 % |
| 🟩 Bullish | PDD – PDD Holdings | $97.40 | -19 % | 23 | ≈ 78 % |
*Quotes at 10:05 AM ET.
🟥 DJT — Bearish Reversal Setup
| Metric | Reading | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Financial Times says DJT plans to raise $3 B to buy crypto; stock jumped 10 – 12 % pre-market. | |
| RSI-14 | 84 | Deeply overbought; prior > 80 spikes have produced median -11 % pullbacks in 7 days. |
| IV Rank (30-d) | ≈ 94 % | Options near year-high premiums—classic “euphoria” signature. |
| Overhead band | $30 – 31.50 (April congestion zone) | Last squeeze failed here; fresh supply likely. |
Narrative
Crypto headlines routinely spark DJT squeezes, but they’ve faded quickly once hype cools. Today’s pop into the $30 area—paired with rich option prices and overbought momentum—sets the stage for a volatility crush and a drift back toward the 20-day EMA (~$25).
Educational Trade Idea
Shareholders might tighten a stop above $31.75. Short-term contrarians could open a starter short targeting $26-27, with a hard stop on a daily close over $32.
🟩 PDD — Bullish Reversal Setup
| Metric | Reading | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings flush | Q1 profit -47 % Y/Y, missing estimates; shares gapped -19 %. | |
| RSI-14 | 23 | First oversold print since Oct-2023; past oversold events rebounded +8 % median in 10 sessions. |
| IV Rank (30-d) | ≈ 78 % | Put premiums rich—fear baked in. |
| Support shelf | $95 – 97 (Dec pivot zone) | Area where funds added after last tariff scare. |
Narrative
Temu-parent PDD is being hit by weak margins and new China tariffs, yet today’s panic has driven momentum to oversold extremes while stuffing the option chain with expensive puts. Even a pause in negative headlines could spark a snap-back toward $105-108 as option sellers step in.
Educational Trade Idea
Value-oriented traders might start a half-position near $97, add if PDD reclaims $100, with a stop beneath $92. Income seekers could sell a $90 cash-secured put expiring June 21—either keep the premium or enter ~7 % below the flush low.